Bitcoin is volatile, so picking a single day's price would skew every projection — start near a cycle top and results look amazing; start near a bottom and they look grim. Instead we start from an average / fair-value anchor:
CAGR models (1–4) start from the True Market Mean (currently $64,934) — a value Bitcoin spends about half its time above and half below, smoothing the 4-year bull/bear cycle. See it on Checkonchain or Chart Inspect (requires sign-up).
Power-Law models (5–7) start from a modeled end-of-2025 price along Bitcoin's long-term Power Law (Model 5 = Middle $143,000, Model 6 = Median $97,000, Model 7 = Bottom $51,000).
Why CAGR instead of yearly returns?
A smooth Compound Annual Growth Rate avoids modeling Bitcoin's wild single-year swings. For example, a 24% CAGR over 4 years is the same end result as +100% for three years then −70% in the fourth — much easier to reason about for planning.
The two model families
Models 1–4 (CAGR-based) use growth rates that decrease smoothly over 30 years, from most aggressive (1) to least (4).
Models 5–7 (Power-Law-based) have a similar decreasing shape but start at different modeled prices, from most aggressive (5) to most conservative (7). Model 6 (Balanced) is the default — a conservative median line that gives reasonable early-year prices and diminishing returns later, which keeps retirement planning realistic.
Want even more control? Use Advanced in the Growth model section to set a fixed CAGR or your own min/max range. See the Power Law chart for background.
